The future of search has been on my mind a lot lately. I've just done a series of interviews with some of the top influencers and observers in the space (Marissa Mayer, Danny Sullivan, Greg Sterling, Michael Ferguson, Steven Marder, Jakob Nielsen and others) talking about what the search results page may look like in 2010. I'll be trying to corral this into a white paper for the fall. I've also chatted with a few people about the future of search marketing. And here's the sum of it all. "Hang on, because you ain't seen nothing yet!"

Change is the Constant

I have remarked to a number of people in the last week or two that I've seen more change in the past 6 months in the search results page than I have in the last 10 years. And all my interviewees seem to agree, we're just at the beginning of that change. Whether its personalization, universal results, Web 2.0 functionality or mobile, our search experience is about the change drastically. Search will become more relevant, more functional, more ubiquitous and more integrated. It will come with us (via our mobile devices) more often and in more useful ways. It will expand our entertainment options. It will change forever our local shopping trips. And it will all happen quickly.

As Search Goes, So Goes SEM

The question is, what does this do for search marketing? Again, in a conversation I was having just this morning, I was asked where the major innovation in the search marketing space was coming from. This was prefaced by the person saying that when a well known industry analyst was asked the same question, they (I'll keep the gender neutral, as there really aren't that many industry analysts out there) said there was almost no innovation coming from search marketers. They were "living off the fat".  My first inclination was to jump to the defense of the industry, but this proved harder than I thought. I realized that I haven't seen a lot of innovation from our industry lately. Certainly the engines themselves are innovating. And I'm seeing innovation in adjacent areas (web analytics, competitive intelligence). But I'm not seeing a lot happen in the search marketing space. After a raft of proprietary bid management tools hit a few years ago, there's been little happening to move the industry forward. In fact, I've noticed a lot of SEM heads buried in the sand. Not only are we not encouraging change, we're actively fighting it.

There are probably a lot of reasons why. First and foremost, I think a number of companies that have been in the space for awhile are tired. I've touched on this in a previous three part series here in the Search Insider. Secondly, it's tough to develop new tools or technologies when you're completely dependent on API's or (worse still) scraping information from the search engines. It's a very risky call to spend time and resources developing new tools or technologies that can be rendered useless by an arbitrary change at Google or Yahoo or obsolete by the rapidly increasing pace of innovation.

Either Help Push or Get Off!

Whatever the reason (and I'm sure the Search Insider blog will be getting a number of posts from you refuting my observation) the fact is that if search marketers are, in fact, riding the wave, that is going to come to a crashing halt very soon. The need for innovation and changing your strategic paradigm is greater than ever. As the search engines change up the rules, if search marketers want to survive, we have to change. Innovation will become a necessity.

And, in the end, this will be a very good thing. The change that's happening in the search space is reflective of the change that is happening throughout marketing and advertising. It's the continuing evolution of a much more efficient marketplace, where connections between customers and vendors are made tremendously more effective through access to information on both sides. The traditional uncertainty of advertising is being leeched out of the system, due in large part to the tremendous effectiveness of search. And as search becomes more relevant and useful, it will make those connections more reliable, less intrusive and more successful for both parties. The opportunity is there for search marketers to help advertisers negotiate this more efficient marketplace successfully. It remains to be seen if we're up for the challenge.

Originally published in Mediapost's Search Insider, July 26, 2007